From an engineering aspect if you have a forecast peak demand (as we do) of 514 mcm/d and a maximum delivery of 452.4 then you have a potential problem. Today there is a gas balancing alert because predicted demand is at 461.5.
In fact as I write the system is delivering that sort of volume of gas. However, what we need to keep an eye on is the stored gas.
We are lucky that this is happening around Christmas when industrial demand is relatively low.
However, it remains that we still are effectively exporting from storage. The interconnector was still exporting in late November (see below) when gas was being taken from Long Term Storage.
I am also uncomfortable with the total gas demand going up (from 502 last year to 514 this year) when our domestic supplies are going down.
As usual it is difficult to predict whether a problem will turn into a crisis. That depends substantially on the weather.