Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Figures at end of gas day 28th November

As part of the IESP Winter Outlook report we consider three key issues.

One is the rolling 7 day average of withdrawals from all storage. The other is the rolling 7 day average of withdrawals from medium and short term. The final is just short term.

The reason for doing it this way, rather than the National Grid's approach, is that when gas is being put into medium or short term from long term then this is not about the consumption of gas.

The key dates are the forecast dates for hitting the Safety Monitors. Once that happens there is a need for emergency action to ensure that demand is brought into line with supply.

Clearly the uncertainty in Russia is crucial here from Jan 1. However, it remains that there is a problem.

TermBalance above safety margin7 day rateNo of daysDate for breach
All28054398716th Feb
Short/Medium481577 day6329th Jan


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