Sunday, December 11, 2005

Forecast gives a few cold days are providing a UK wide 16 day forecast that we use for looking at the gas situation.

On Friday we had the best ever production from Beach and IOG with IOG now running at 11 mcm/d. Beach will, of course, vary around an average. The interconnector is, however, still importing less gas when less is consumed. That is the biggest medium term problem as we really should be trying to import and store gas. Prices have gone down because the market today is not as tight. Over the weekend gas has been reinjected into storage, but whereas if this was happening in February one could relax, in December it is far too early to relax.

The current 16 day forecast gives a low on Tuesday 13th Dec at 3C and two low days on 18 and 19 C both at around 1C.

Obviously everything can change between now and then the 18/19 forecast could start calling on short term storage, something we have not had to do until now.

We should be able to cope with 2 days, but some predictions would require an urgent cutback of NTS load. There is, however, some leeway in the "linepack" - the gas in the pipes which could help to balance out these pressures.

On the other hand it may not be that cold.


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