Friday, January 20, 2006

Numerical Models Come together

Numerical Weather Forecasting models are pointing towards a cold February according to the Chairman of the Independent Energy Scrutiny Panel, John Hemming MP.

"Those people who don't think we are already in a gas crisis should ask those people who are losing their jobs through gas prices what they think." said John Hemming

"However, for the gas supply issues to hit the wider british public will require a sustained period of cold weather. Numerical weather forecasting is unreliable beyond 7 days although the Global Forecast System issues forecasts up to 16 days. However, a number of models are now coming together to forecast a sustained period of cold weather starting at the end of next week."

"Russia is already suffering gas problems, but they are really having a problem with the cold. Our own cold weather will not be as cold, but we are not used to it."

"This would imply supply challenges from 29th January through to 4th February. If we start having to use short term supply then there is only 2 days supply before we hit the safety monitor buffers and have to start switching off the Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (electricity generators)."

"I talked to the government this week about the situation. They seem complacent and have misunderstood some of the figures. It is touch and go. If the weather is mild we will cope this winter, but it is looking like there is going to be a cold spell. If thte cold last for long enough then National Grid will need to run 'Exercise Ostrich' for real."

"Industry are unhappy that they are subject to disconnection without any compensation. This will exacerbate the economic damage caused by the govenment's abdication of its responsibility."


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