"The Perfect Storm"
Early indications are being forecast of a potential combination of factors that could cause difficulties in the UK Energy Market next Friday according to the Chairman of the Independent Energy Scrutiny Panel, John Hemming MP.
"The first ingredient to this particular recipe", he said, "is the general tightness of the UK's Gas and Electricity Energy supply and the lack of action from the Government."
"The second ingredient is overoptimistic estimations of supply."
"The third ingredient is Russia cutting down gas exports via the Ukraine - which is happening today."
"The final ingredient, which is not yet certain, is forecasts of another cold spell associated with snow starting on Thursday, Friday this week."
"Imports via the Interconnector from Belgium were relatively high at 30.1 mcm/d on Thursday. They fell back to 18.1 mcm/d on Friday. On Thursday 57 mcm were taken from storage. The impact of Russia's dispute with the Ukraine could be that imports cease or even exports start - we just don't know."
"On Thursday the National Grid issued a NISM indicating a shortage of electricity supply margin. This makes it very clear how tight the situation is. Normal weekday demand for gas is about 50 mcm greater than that during the Christmas week. We could, therefore, be looking for 137 mcm from storage on Friday. That is more than storage can provide and would lead to cuts in electricity generation."
"Analyses of the 18z and other charts from the US Global Forecast System overnight indicate that there is a reasonable chance of another cold spell including relatively heavy snow at the end of the week. "
"As usual this primarily depends upon the weather which is difficult to forecast at what is currently 6 days notice."
"The government have a responsibility to look urgently at the dispute in the Ukraine and act to protect the UK's imports from Belgium."
Note for editors:
The figure of 137 mcm comes from 50 increase in demand + 57 last Thursday's calculation + 30 problems in import.
"The first ingredient to this particular recipe", he said, "is the general tightness of the UK's Gas and Electricity Energy supply and the lack of action from the Government."
"The second ingredient is overoptimistic estimations of supply."
"The third ingredient is Russia cutting down gas exports via the Ukraine - which is happening today."
"The final ingredient, which is not yet certain, is forecasts of another cold spell associated with snow starting on Thursday, Friday this week."
"Imports via the Interconnector from Belgium were relatively high at 30.1 mcm/d on Thursday. They fell back to 18.1 mcm/d on Friday. On Thursday 57 mcm were taken from storage. The impact of Russia's dispute with the Ukraine could be that imports cease or even exports start - we just don't know."
"On Thursday the National Grid issued a NISM indicating a shortage of electricity supply margin. This makes it very clear how tight the situation is. Normal weekday demand for gas is about 50 mcm greater than that during the Christmas week. We could, therefore, be looking for 137 mcm from storage on Friday. That is more than storage can provide and would lead to cuts in electricity generation."
"Analyses of the 18z and other charts from the US Global Forecast System overnight indicate that there is a reasonable chance of another cold spell including relatively heavy snow at the end of the week. "
"As usual this primarily depends upon the weather which is difficult to forecast at what is currently 6 days notice."
"The government have a responsibility to look urgently at the dispute in the Ukraine and act to protect the UK's imports from Belgium."
Note for editors:
The figure of 137 mcm comes from 50 increase in demand + 57 last Thursday's calculation + 30 problems in import.
posted by John Hemming at 2:50 PM
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