Phase 1 Gas Emergency 'likely' this week
A Phase 1 Gas Emergency is now looking likely and may occur as soon as Tuesday 14th March according to John Hemming MP, Chairman of the Independent Energy Scrutiny Panel.
"Sunday's gas consumption was 357 mcm and involved taking 320GWh from Short Term Storage leaving 724GWh. Today's demand according to the National Grid Website is predicted to be 380 mcm. All else being equal this would involve taking the maximum 526 GWh from Short Term Storage leaving just under 200 GWh. Tomorrow's Gas Demand is predicted at 372 mcm which (all else being equal) would require about 400 GWh from a store of Short Term Gas which only has 198 GWh in it. This would cause a Phase 1 Gas Emergency with disconnections of large users."
"Obviously one would expect some demand reduction as a result of the Gas Balancing Alert. It is also possible that imports via the interconnector will pick up. The cold weather, however, is predicted to last a while longer. Medium Term Storage is likely to be running below 30% by the end of Tuesday's Gas Day. It is, however, now likely that there will be a gas emergency this week (likely estimated as a probability of over 50%) "
"Prices started rocketing on Sunday and have spiked intraday today at £2.55 per therm. This is symptomatic of the nature of the gas market where most demand is not sensitive to the spot price. That is why the demand reduction from the Gas Balancing Alert is likely to be lower than expected by government and Ofgem."
"Sunday's gas consumption was 357 mcm and involved taking 320GWh from Short Term Storage leaving 724GWh. Today's demand according to the National Grid Website is predicted to be 380 mcm. All else being equal this would involve taking the maximum 526 GWh from Short Term Storage leaving just under 200 GWh. Tomorrow's Gas Demand is predicted at 372 mcm which (all else being equal) would require about 400 GWh from a store of Short Term Gas which only has 198 GWh in it. This would cause a Phase 1 Gas Emergency with disconnections of large users."
"Obviously one would expect some demand reduction as a result of the Gas Balancing Alert. It is also possible that imports via the interconnector will pick up. The cold weather, however, is predicted to last a while longer. Medium Term Storage is likely to be running below 30% by the end of Tuesday's Gas Day. It is, however, now likely that there will be a gas emergency this week (likely estimated as a probability of over 50%) "
"Prices started rocketing on Sunday and have spiked intraday today at £2.55 per therm. This is symptomatic of the nature of the gas market where most demand is not sensitive to the spot price. That is why the demand reduction from the Gas Balancing Alert is likely to be lower than expected by government and Ofgem."
posted by John Hemming at 5:24 PM
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