Imports Winter 2006-7

One big uncertainty is what gas will be imported in winter 2006-7. At the time of writing this is the picture.

1. It remains the case that it is likely that shippers will use gas stored at Rough in preference to imported gas. This will cause uncertainties in the market and drive up prices.
   
2. There probably remains some form of bottleneck coming through from German and Holland into Zeebrugge. It is difficult to find out what the full situation is. ALthough IUK have increased their capacity to 68 mcm/d we probably won't see that much gas being imported.
   
3. There probably will be some gas come in via langeled. The Ormen Lange field that it is supposed to be primarily supplied by is not avialable until late 2007, but
   the Norwegians will probably provide something.
   
4. Excelerate will probably manage coming up to 10/11 mcm/d with their two LNG ships.
   
5. BBL is not expected to provide that much gas.
   
6. National Grid's expectation for Beach is 267.
   

It is not worth spending time trying to do a detailed alternate forecast for supply until October and the IESP is trying to clarify further the situation on the Continent (and in the North Sea.)