Sunday, December 24, 2006

MRS @ 88%

At the end of Gas Day 23rd Dec (a Saturday) Medium Range Storage was at 88% having taken another 7mcm from MRS.

At this rate MRS would deplete in January.

As expected LRS should be OK except for the fact that it passed through the same capacity constraint at Easington as Langeled (96-98 mcm/d). Bacton I am told has a capacity constraint of 158 mcm/d. I am not sure it is that high from the actions of NG on capacity - see the ANS messages.

After Christmas we will do a review of the flows to find out what is going on. Weather forecasts point towards warmer weather, but the control on GFS is going for a cold end of December.

The recent frosty weather has not been that cold. Demand has been high probably because 2Gw of AGRs are offline. Making an assumption of 50% efficiency (supposed to be 55%), that would be 96 GWh of gas which is only about 9 mcm so it looks as if there are other reasons for the relatively high demand.


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