GBA Trigger Revision

National Grid have now reviewed the GBA trigger upwards to 461.20. That is not unreasonable as the trigger should include all the available storage sources. The underlying supply via the various pipelines, from LNG and from the UK Continental Shelf is variable. There is a working assumption from Winter Outlook, but an alternative approach is to look at demand and subtract the figures from storage then add the storage capacity back on.

The problem, however, is that if we are using Short Term storage then there is only a few days of that and medium term is only 20 days. Long Term Storage from the Rough field is essentially a relatively reliable supply source over months.

At the weekends gas demand goes down. That may allow a reinstatement of some storage, but it also may not.