Tuesday, December 20, 2005

National Grid Changes Safety Monitors

The National Grid changed the Safety Monitors today. They accept that supply is reduced, but they argue only by 10 mcm/d (I would say 20-30 mcm/d). They claim a reasonable figure for the reduction in price sensitive demand of 25 mcm/d. (I have generally gone for 20-30 mcm/d so I cannot complain).

Then they argue for less gas to be required in total for the safety monitors although more for the short and medium term. I have reviewed the report and am not at all comfortable with it. The original proposals (Sep 2005) may have been wrong, but they had some margin for error. This report does not seem to have any margin for error.

As usual everything depends upon the weather, but I am unhappy with what appears to me to be a shaving of safety margins on key concerns and the removal of contingencies.


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