Saturday, February 04, 2006

Arctic Blast possible

The numerical forecasters are now inclined towards Arctic Northerly winds from Wednesday(ish). Clearly that is in the not so reliable part of the forecast. However, it has the potential of tightening supply.

The important evidence is that we start hitting short term storage at 400 mcm. In theory the maximum withdrawal from STS is 48 mcm (and that's for 2 days).

When National Grid do their calculations for the firm and safety monitors they also look at maximum demand.

The calculates in December were
Max demand 4481
Non storage 3799
Storage 1201
ie supplies of 5000 GWh (divide by 11 for mcm roughly)

The problem is that in practise it looks more like 443 is the max supply dropping to 398 after 2 days.

I have contacted the Health and Safety executive about this. I still don't think we need to panic as yet, but I really am unhappy about the risks the government are taking.


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