Monday, February 27, 2006

Sunday keeps on withdrawing

Net Demand was 347 mcm. Imports dropped again to 27 mcm and 13 mcm was withdrawn from storage.

Forecast demand for today is actually only 370 mcm (at the time of writing), but the weather is still forecast to be bitterly cold for a number of days - starting really tomorrow, but then getting colder and staying cold until after the weekend.

I am really not sure about the methodology of calculating the safety monitors in this circumstance - there is some elasticity in the storage in the pipes, but that is under a day's usage.

The key safety issue with Gas is that people have to be cut off rather than have low pressure (low pressure gas may go out or create CO rather than CO2). Hence there is a need for backup storage to keep up the pressure. The trunk demand of about 60-70 mcm can be cut off quickly, but generally the rest is not differentiated.

If demand really rockets, therefore, we end up in a situation in which the total demand can tax supplies. This is where short term storage gets used.


Post a Comment

<< Home

eXTReMe Tracker