Friday, February 19, 2010

Trigger should be 400 mcm/d

What is missed from the trigger adjustment is that non storage supply is running at around 30 mcm/d below its estimated amount of 363 mcm/d. Hence in fact there should be a lower trigger.

However, given that we have 2 days SRS and 2 days of much of MRS there is quite a bit of leeway. The problem with this, however, is that the system has a tendency not to respond to problems when there is a real problem.

The next 7 days look coldish if not really cold (from NetWeather).

I will know better at 5pm on Tuesday whether an Urgent Question is called for. That will give Tuesday morning's storage figures at 6am.

It still looks like we are exporting gas whilst taking gas from MRS. This is the "perfect storm" that was warned about.


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