Thursday, December 30, 2010

Before New Year

We have a warm patch of Atlantic Weather now. The gas demand is down about 100 mcm/d. However, imports down the interconnector have almost come to a halt whilst gas is still withdrawn from the Long Range Storage.

This may not matter, but if the weather reverts to Northerly or Easterly over a period of time we could deplete LRS.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Winter 2010-11 - Gas Balance Alert Issued

From an engineering aspect if you have a forecast peak demand (as we do) of 514 mcm/d and a maximum delivery of 452.4 then you have a potential problem. Today there is a gas balancing alert because predicted demand is at 461.5.

In fact as I write the system is delivering that sort of volume of gas. However, what we need to keep an eye on is the stored gas.

We are lucky that this is happening around Christmas when industrial demand is relatively low.

However, it remains that we still are effectively exporting from storage. The interconnector was still exporting in late November (see below) when gas was being taken from Long Term Storage.


I am also uncomfortable with the total gas demand going up (from 502 last year to 514 this year) when our domestic supplies are going down.

As usual it is difficult to predict whether a problem will turn into a crisis. That depends substantially on the weather.
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