Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Gas Day 29th November

TermBalance above safety margin7 day rateNo of daysDate for breach
All27361421651st Feb
Short/Medium45874510311th March
Short1314injecting


Quite a lot was taken out of Medium Term storage with a total withdrawal of 693GWh.

With the weather getting warmer across Europe we should see a slight reduction in demand and possibly an increase in real imports from Belgium.

There is clear evidence that many CCGT plants have swiched to dual shifting with gas generation during the day in the range 60-70 mcm/d and in the night at about 30 mcm/d. This has given about 20 mcm/d of a reduction in demand from direct connect.

Figures at end of gas day 28th November

As part of the IESP Winter Outlook report we consider three key issues.

One is the rolling 7 day average of withdrawals from all storage. The other is the rolling 7 day average of withdrawals from medium and short term. The final is just short term.

The reason for doing it this way, rather than the National Grid's approach, is that when gas is being put into medium or short term from long term then this is not about the consumption of gas.

The key dates are the forecast dates for hitting the Safety Monitors. Once that happens there is a need for emergency action to ensure that demand is brought into line with supply.

Clearly the uncertainty in Russia is crucial here from Jan 1. However, it remains that there is a problem.

TermBalance above safety margin7 day rateNo of daysDate for breach
All28054398716th Feb
Short/Medium481577 day6329th Jan
Short1314injecting

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Gas Crisis

This blog has been created to document the issues of the UK Gas Crisis for the winters of 2005-6 and 2006-7.

Considerable information exists on johnhemming.blogspot.com

The reason for creating this blog is to have information made available without dominating John Hemming MP's blog.
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